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Global Stainless Steel production during April to June 2025 is expected to decrease by about 5-7% as compared to Q1 2025.
Total Output and Growth
The output during Q2 2025 is expected to remain between 14.5 and 14.8 million metric tons. According to the data of the World Steel Association, global raw steel production dropped by 3.8% in May 2025 compared to May 2024, which automatically affects stainless steel production in parallel. The reason behind this drop in production is planned mill maintenance, especially in China, and the low demand for stainless steel in the global industry in Q2 2025.
Top Producing Countries
According to the data of the World Steel Association for Q1 2025, China was the leading producer and then followed by Europe and the USA. It is expected to show a slight change in Q2 2025 numbers, but the rank of production remains the same.
Regional Production Trends
Different regions of the world and their government focus on different policies on the production of stainless steel. Europe is focusing on the implementation of environmental regulations with technological innovation, whereas Asia is focused on decrement of costs with massive production of stainless steel.
Figure 1: Stainless steel production comparison Q1 vs Q2 2025
Asia (China, Indonesia, India)
Asia is a global hub for producing stainless steel, with China dominating in output and then followed by Indonesia and India. For Q1 2025, China was ranked as the global leading stainless steel production country with a 67% contribution. During Q2 2025, initial data indicates that China will remain the leading global producer of stainless steel.
Indonesia is an emerging and the second leading producer of stainless steel in Asia. This becomes possible due to government facilitation, backed by China with raw materials and its growing nickel reserves.
India is ranked as the third leading producer of stainless steel in Asia. Its production of stainless steel is likely to grow slowly. The major hurdle behind the rapid growth of stainless-steel production is raw material import and taxes.
EU & USA
The major focus of the EU & USA is to decrease the dependency on imports from Asia with green, sustainable production of stainless steel. It is expected to decline in production of stainless steel in Europe and the United States will decline due to high costs and strict regulations from the government.
Raw Materials and Input Costs
The price of stainless steel is totally dependent on the raw materials prices and the main alloying elements. The input cost is expected to increase in Q2 2025 due to a smaller supply of scrap and government policies to produce stainless steel in an environmentally friendly manner.
Nickel and Other Elements
The prices of main alloying elements in stainless steel, such as nickel, chromium, and molybdenum, are expected to be higher in Q2 2025. It is expected to fluctuate the prices of nickel will fluctuate due to an increase the demand in the EV sector and changes in environmental law regarding to export of nickel ore from Indonesia. While the prices of chromium and molybdenum are expected to increase due to trade tariffs, more demand, and mining disruptions.
Figure 2: Nickel price fluctuations
Scrap and Energy
Low-carbon emission methods for production, such as electric arc furnaces, have a great dependency on scrap and electricity. The recent increase in prices of scrap is due to the increased demand and usage of scrap in many other industries, such as steel. In Europe, the melting cost always remains a concern due to high electricity prices.
Demand by End-Use Sectors
The demand for stainless steel is expected to continue to increase in Q2 2025 due to major infrastructure projects in Asian countries.
Construction & Infrastructure
Stainless steel is one of the main materials for the construction of bridges and buildings due to its corrosion resistance, strength.
Automotive & Appliances
The demand for Stainless steel in the automotive and appliances industry continues to remain higher.
Technology and Sustainability
The recent regulation of environmental rules by industries leads to the adoption of innovative technologies and more sustainability in stainless steel production.
Low-Carbon Steel Trends
In recent years, industries have been producing stainless steel with less carbon emission methods, such as EAF and hydrogen-based reduction. This low carbon emission trend is expected to continue in Q2 2025.
Recycling and Circular Economy
To lower the carbon emissions during the production of stainless steel, manufacturing mills and the government are working closely to collect and reuse the scrap. Table 1 shows the comparison between Q1 and Q2 2025 expected data.
Trade and Policy Landscape
In recent months, raw materials costs have not been the only issue for the stainless-steel flow. But the different government policies and conflicts between countries also play a vital role in the disruption of the flow of stainless steel.
Tariffs and Protectionism
The recent conflicts between the USA and China have increased the duties on imports. China continued to decrease the export of nickel and chromium to protect its domestic industries. This leads to disturbing the flow of stainless steel in different countries.
EU CBAM
The basic purpose of EU CBAM is to impose rates on stainless steel based on carbon emissions. This policy leads to create conflict (automatically increasing prices) by imposing more charges on the carbon emission countries (like China and Indonesia) and edging the less carbon emissions countries like Europe.
Table 1: Comparison of Q1 and Q2 2025 related to scrap availability, EU CBAM, and Green steel production.
Category | Q1 2025 (Actual)
| Q2 2025 (Forecast) | Analysis |
Scrap Availability | 8.1 MMT | 7.9 MMT | Reduction in the supply of scrap |
EU CBAM Cost Impact | +8% on imports | +10-12% on imports
| Import cost increases |
Green Steel Premium | $120/ton | $150/ton | Green steel production increases |
Challenges in Q2 2025
In Q2 2025, demand is expected to remain the same, but environmental regulatory and raw material cost fluctuations are a challenge for the industries.
Economic Pressures
Stainless steel production industries must face trade taxes, energy prices, and fluctuations in prices of nickel, which automatically leads to economic pressure on them.
Regulatory Demands
Beyond the carbon emission regulations, industries are now facing waste management regulations and strict workers’ regulations.
Future Prediction
Stainless steel industries that are adopting the low-carbon emission, recycling, and waste management regulations will benefit in the coming years.
Regional Forecasts
In Q2 2025, Asian countries’ stainless steel production, such as China and India, is likely to show steady growth. Indonesia’s output is likely to increase due to its nickel reserves and recent regulation and investment from the government in its industries. European industries are likely to face pressure to fulfill the demand, supply, energy prices, and regulations.
Investment and Market Trends
In Q2 2025, it is likely to increase the investment from investors to invest in the low-carbon emission and recycling of waste regulation in industries.
Conclusion
Global steel production dropped by 3.8% in May 2025, which is likely to affect stainless-steel production in parallel. China is expected to continue its ranked in first place and then followed by Europe and the USA. Price fluctuations of raw materials, especially nickel, will greatly affect the production of stainless steel during Q2 2025. The recent environmental regulations have led to low carbon emissions and a circular economy. Companies that comply with the environmental laws will likely get a cost benefit.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the global stainless steel production volume in Q2 2025?
In Q2 2025, global stainless production is likely to decrease by about 5-7% which is 14.5–14.8 million metric tons, as compared to Q1 2025.
Which countries led stainless steel production in Q2 2025?
China is likely to produce more stainless steel in Q2 2025, followed by the USA and Europe.
